East and Throckmorton likely to rule UIL D2 Six-Man Playoffs

After 100,000 simulations, the Throckmorton Greyhounds appear to have a 29.8% chance to win the UIL D2 Six-Man State Championship. The biggest challenge it appears will be the dominance of the East bracket, which won a dominating 80.1% of the time in the simulation.

Yesterday I wrote about how the Crowell Wildcats are a somewhat dominant 33.1% to repeat as the D1 UIL State Six-Man Champions. If you would like to read more details on the methods, I have several posted below.

Basic note: The table represents how many times each team LOST in that round or became the champion (final column).

TEAM BI-DISTRICT AREA QUARTERS SEMIS FINALS CHAMPION
Throckmorton 2277 17879 26568 18537 4942 29797
Guthrie 7473 13276 45288 15376 3977 14610
Calvert 7171 26565 28201 20608 3668 13787
Richland Springs 16212 9781 33384 23044 3859 13720
Groom 14392 22605 26298 11473 18726 6506
Follett 20907 9637 30748 13218 19457 6033
Jonesboro 21822 51329 15095 7807 1096 2851
Motley County 36812 49576 7304 3538 821 1949
Buena Vista 24382 31007 18346 15296 9149 1820
Balmorhea 35900 17918 21475 14798 8314 1595
Blanket 26142 37455 17133 12373 5848 1049
Southland 16387 56498 15533 5156 5424 1002
Chillicothe 14573 70298 12063 1898 356 812
Oglesby 83788 4289 8126 2777 309 711
Lueders-Avoca 63188 31122 3323 1401 289 677
Mt. Calm 26113 62182 8582 2343 252 528
Sands 64100 13218 12862 6674 2706 440
McLean 79093 4955 10141 2791 2601 419
Blackwell 30030 45928 14678 6701 2320 343
Mullin 78178 17599 2828 1014 112 269
Sierra Blanca 75618 14193 5708 3167 1158 156
Whitharral 41417 49108 6784 1462 1082 147
Jayton 92527 2983 3809 455 90 136
Lefors 85608 7191 4864 1239 973 125
Trinidad 92829 4507 1933 566 61 104
Loraine 73858 17345 5047 2663 984 103
High Island 73887 23748 1851 406 26 82
Rising Star 69970 22936 4751 1763 507 73
Kress 58583 36300 3781 770 511 55
Lazbuddie 83613 13706 1851 456 333 41
Harrold 97723 1423 667 125 28 34
Forestburg 85427 13443 978 105 21 26

It is interesting to note that while Richland Springs and Calvert have higher ratings at the current time, Guthrie actually has the second-highest chance to win the tournament (14610 to 13720 and 13787, for RS and Calvert, respectively). This is due to the fact that Guthrie has it easier in the first two rounds.

Out West, Groom and Follett (6506 and 6033 wins) have a combined probability that’s less than any of the top-4 from the East. On the bright side, they reach the finals more than each of these, mostly due to the fact that Throckmorton is not in their half of the draw.

It certainly looks like the West is more competitive in the sense that the teams are more even and quite a few more have solid opportunities to reach the semis and finals.

Coming Next: All of the private school draws.

 

Oakland, Pittsburgh slight favorites in Wild Card probabilities

With the MLB Playoffs beginning this evening, I figured it was time to test my rankings and pull out the old probability calculator. I created the MLB Ratings based on a simple least squares NLP Optimization that I have discussed before.

Oakland at Kansas City

The Royals are in the playoffs for the first time in ages and they get to host a game. Unfortunately, they didn’t seem to have a home field advantage during the regular season, so I am not sure how much this helps (although in reality we can assume it does, at least a little). The numbers say the A’s are the better team by almost 0.7 of a run (per game, for the season). I show them as a 63.5% favorite.

San Francisco at Pittsburgh

These teams appear to be very evenly match. On a neutral field, the Giants look to be a 0.15 run favorite. However, this game is not on a neutral field and Pittsburgh has one of the few home field advantages in the playoffs (if we assume the regular season is any indication). This swing makes the Pirates about a 0.215 run favorite tomorrow night, giving them about a 54.3% chance of winning.

Detroit v. Baltimore

Neither team appears to have a home field advantage, so looking at it straight-up, we find that Baltimore looks to be about a 0.4 run favorite (or 57.9%) per game. In a five-game series, the results look like this:

([0.0747, 0.1297, 0.1501], 0.3545, [0.194, 0.2451, 0.2064], 0.6455)

Overall, Baltimore is 64.6% to win the series. The most likely outcome is a Baltimore 3-1 win (24.5%).

Los Angeles v. St. Louis

With neither team holding a home field advantage, the Dodgers look to be about 0.445 runs (or 58.8%) better than the Cards. The five-game series probabilities are:

([0.2033, 0.2512, 0.207], 0.6615, [0.07, 0.1234, 0.1451], 0.3385)

Los Angeles looks about 66.2% to win the series overall. Again, the highest likelihood for an outcome is a 3-1 Dodger win (25.1%).

I will update the probabilities and try to run a Monte Carlo simulation with the data later in the week after we see who wins the Wild Card games.

NCAA Men’s DI Tennis Regionals Simulated 50,000 times

This is posted on my college tennis website so aptly named, texascollegetennis.com. I decided to post it here as well.. why not, right?

I’m sitting in the middle of exams and term projects looking for ways to relax. What better way than to run a Monte Carlo Simulation of each of the men’s regionals, based on my year-end ratings?

So I ran each regional 50,000 times and you can see the results. One of the more intriguing of course is the Nashville Regional, where I could not really account for the home court (and probably outdoor) advantage the Vanderbilt will have over Columbia. That probably sways things a little, I am guessing in the range of 5-15%.

The first number is how many times each team won the entire regional. The second is their probability of coming out of the regional.

BEST FIRST ROUND MATCH-UPS: The Vanderbilt-Virginia Tech match-up looks good, as do the Oklahoma State-Michigan, Memphis-Drake, South Florida-Florida State,  Northwestern-Mississippi, Wake Forest-Louisville, Boise State-USD and Auburn-Harvard. There are a few more, but that’s my quick take.

USC Regional

University of Southern California 45307 90.614%
University of Idaho 122 0.244%
Oklahoma State University 2283 4.566%
University of Michigan 2288 4.576%

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Nashville Regional

Vanderbilt University 9815 19.630%
Virginia Tech 7818 15.636%
East Tennessee State University 1917 3.834%
Columbia University 30450 60.900%

.

Austin Regional

University of Texas 39580 79.160%
Marist College 224 0.448%
University of Louisiana at Lafayette 1140 2.280%
Mississippi State University 9056 18.112%

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College Station Regional

California 11649 23.298%
Texas Tech University 5420 10.840%
Alcorn State University 42 0.084%
Texas A&M University 32889 65.778%

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Waco Regional

Baylor University 43520 87.040%
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 497 0.994%
Stanford University 3601 7.202%
University of Tulsa 2382 4.764%

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Champaign Regional

University of Memphis 6515 13.030%
Drake University 5669 11.338%
Ball State University 374 0.748%
University of Illinois 37442 74.884%

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South Bend Regional

University of Notre Dame 35693 71.386%
Univ. of Wisconsin-Green Bay 381 0.762%
Northwestern University 6925 13.850%
University of Mississippi 7001 14.002%

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Charlottesville Regional

Penn State University 3489 6.978%
UNC Wilmington 636 1.272%
U.S. Military Academy 104 0.208%
University of Virginia 45771 91.542%

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Columbus Regional

Ohio State University 45064 90.128%
Bryant University 72 0.144%
Wake Forest University 2384 4.768%
University of Louisville 2480 4.960%

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Gainesville Regional

University of South Florida 7877 15.754%
Florida State University 7821 15.642%
St. John’s University 1541 3.082%
University of Florida 32761 65.522%

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Durham Regional

Duke University 35589 71.178%
Winthrop University 606 1.212%
University of Tennessee 12034 24.068%
Elon University 1771 3.542%

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UCLA Regional

University of San Diego 2321 4.642%
Boise State University 3591 7.182%
Cal Poly 375 0.750%
UCLA 43713 87.426%

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Chapel Hill Regional

North Carolina 40147 80.294%
South Carolina State 233 0.466%
University of South Carolina 8986 17.972%
George Washington University 634 1.268%

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Athens Regional

North Carolina State 7642 15.284%
University of Oregon 5472 10.944%
Jacksonville State University 161 0.322%
University of Georgia 36725 73.450%

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Lexington Regional

University of Kentucky 32487 64.974%
University of Denver 948 1.896%
Clemson University 9801 19.602%
Purdue University 6764 13.528%

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Norman Regional

Auburn University 2313 4.626%
Harvard University 2361 4.722%
Montana 88 0.176%
University of Oklahoma 45238 90.476%