East and Throckmorton likely to rule UIL D2 Six-Man Playoffs

After 100,000 simulations, the Throckmorton Greyhounds appear to have a 29.8% chance to win the UIL D2 Six-Man State Championship. The biggest challenge it appears will be the dominance of the East bracket, which won a dominating 80.1% of the time in the simulation.

Yesterday I wrote about how the Crowell Wildcats are a somewhat dominant 33.1% to repeat as the D1 UIL State Six-Man Champions. If you would like to read more details on the methods, I have several posted below.

Basic note: The table represents how many times each team LOST in that round or became the champion (final column).

TEAM BI-DISTRICT AREA QUARTERS SEMIS FINALS CHAMPION
Throckmorton 2277 17879 26568 18537 4942 29797
Guthrie 7473 13276 45288 15376 3977 14610
Calvert 7171 26565 28201 20608 3668 13787
Richland Springs 16212 9781 33384 23044 3859 13720
Groom 14392 22605 26298 11473 18726 6506
Follett 20907 9637 30748 13218 19457 6033
Jonesboro 21822 51329 15095 7807 1096 2851
Motley County 36812 49576 7304 3538 821 1949
Buena Vista 24382 31007 18346 15296 9149 1820
Balmorhea 35900 17918 21475 14798 8314 1595
Blanket 26142 37455 17133 12373 5848 1049
Southland 16387 56498 15533 5156 5424 1002
Chillicothe 14573 70298 12063 1898 356 812
Oglesby 83788 4289 8126 2777 309 711
Lueders-Avoca 63188 31122 3323 1401 289 677
Mt. Calm 26113 62182 8582 2343 252 528
Sands 64100 13218 12862 6674 2706 440
McLean 79093 4955 10141 2791 2601 419
Blackwell 30030 45928 14678 6701 2320 343
Mullin 78178 17599 2828 1014 112 269
Sierra Blanca 75618 14193 5708 3167 1158 156
Whitharral 41417 49108 6784 1462 1082 147
Jayton 92527 2983 3809 455 90 136
Lefors 85608 7191 4864 1239 973 125
Trinidad 92829 4507 1933 566 61 104
Loraine 73858 17345 5047 2663 984 103
High Island 73887 23748 1851 406 26 82
Rising Star 69970 22936 4751 1763 507 73
Kress 58583 36300 3781 770 511 55
Lazbuddie 83613 13706 1851 456 333 41
Harrold 97723 1423 667 125 28 34
Forestburg 85427 13443 978 105 21 26

It is interesting to note that while Richland Springs and Calvert have higher ratings at the current time, Guthrie actually has the second-highest chance to win the tournament (14610 to 13720 and 13787, for RS and Calvert, respectively). This is due to the fact that Guthrie has it easier in the first two rounds.

Out West, Groom and Follett (6506 and 6033 wins) have a combined probability that’s less than any of the top-4 from the East. On the bright side, they reach the finals more than each of these, mostly due to the fact that Throckmorton is not in their half of the draw.

It certainly looks like the West is more competitive in the sense that the teams are more even and quite a few more have solid opportunities to reach the semis and finals.

Coming Next: All of the private school draws.

 

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