100k Simulations of All Texas Private Six-Man Brackets

It was just time to get down to it. I had been delaying the inevitable, running 100,000 simulations of each and every private school six-man state bracket. For details on how I did this, please read the earlier posts I have written about the public school brackets and other Monte Carlo simulations I have written. This was very similar….

First build the start bracket using this week’s ratings from my website (www.sixmanfootball.com). Then calculate the probability of each first round game and simulate the result. After each round I update the ratings (not 100% like my formula, but a close enough estimation) and continue…. do this 100,000 times and see what happened.

Well, here’s what happened.

TAPPS D1          
TEAM FIRST QUARTERS SEMIS FINAL CHAMPION
Boerne Geneva 0 16679 33496 12466 37359
Midland Trinity 0 13728 45784 12329 28159
Baytown Christian 0 38588 25904 24432 11076
Watauga Harvest 25725 17419 26487 20469 9900
Rockwall Heritage 35535 37235 13252 10377 3601
Sugar Land Logos Prep 24633 61253 8646 2274 3194
Houston Emery-Weiner 74275 9537 10169 4741 1278
Pasadena First Baptist 64465 24177 6168 3917 1273
Abilene Christian 45374 38952 10399 4169 1106
Round Rock Christian 49480 43205 5492 864 959
Katy Faith West 50520 43067 4867 711 835
Austin Hill Country 54626 34092 7621 2879 782
Waco Vanguard 75367 22068 1715 372 478
TAPPS D2          
TEAM FIRST QUARTERS SEMIS FINAL CHAMPION
Waco Live Oak 0 9711 16354 17471 56464
Austin Veritas 0 20885 34691 29735 14689
Orange Community Christian 0 46910 27849 18231 7010
Dallas Tyler Street 36085 17714 34388 5019 6794
SA Castle Hills 22194 38296 19682 14086 5742
Cedar Park Summit 25660 66166 3416 2406 2352
Denton Calvary 0 69007 26428 2318 2247
Kerrville Our Lady of the Hills 63915 13279 18663 1980 2163
Bulverde Bracken Christian 36088 49169 9136 4452 1155
Dallas Lakehill 77806 14794 4581 2204 615
Conroe Covenant Christian 63912 29946 4061 1649 432
Lubbock Christ The King 74340 24123 751 449 337
TAPPS D3          
TEAM FIRST QUARTERS SEMIS FINAL CHAMPION
Longview Trinity 0 25590 27022 16279 31109
Fredericksburg Heritage 0 29268 21774 25772 23186
WF Notre Dame 0 36128 35968 11996 15908
Fort Worth Covenant Classical 11814 54054 22060 5912 6160
Granbury North Central Texas Academy 43834 15878 24039 10298 5951
Seguin Lifegate 15010 58039 11590 10003 5358
Richardson Canyon Creek Christian 41133 42480 8406 3951 4030
San Marcos Hill Country Christian 56166 14491 19126 6837 3380
Alvin Living Stones 0 69631 22245 5739 2385
WF Wichita Christian 58867 31930 5010 2152 2041
Brenham Christian 84990 12693 1226 805 286
Selma River City Believers 88186 9818 1534 256 206
TCAF D1          
TEAM SEMIS FINAL CHAMPION
Fort Worth Nazarene 25645 32238 42117
Wylie Preparatory 26385 35665 37950
Dallas Inspired Vision 74355 15287 10358
Waco Methodist Childrens Home 73615 16810 9575
TCAF D2          
TEAM SEMIS FINAL CHAMPION
Azle Christian 20861 16452 62687
Granbury Cornerstone 32698 49507 17795
Weatherford Christian 79139 7600 13261
Arlington St. Paul Prep 67302 26441 6257
TCAL D1          
TEAM QUARTERS SEMIS FINAL CHAMPION  
Bryan Allen Academy 1340 2173 2839 93648
SA The Atonement 47104 23154 28492 1250
Tyler King’s Academy 48830 49877 289 1004
Greenville Phoenix 44302 28918 25840 940
EP Faith 52896 22695 23532 877
Bryan Christian Homeschool (BVCHEA) 51170 47717 255 858
Houston Mount Carmel 98660 233 266 841
Clear Lake Christian 55698 25233 18487 582
TCAL D2          
TEAM QUARTERS SEMIS FINAL CHAMPION
Stephenville Faith 2150 4906 24891 68053
Sugar Land HCYA Fort Bend 4188 21572 49549 24691
Corpus Christi Annapolis 12883 64578 18001 4538
Killeen Memorial 37562 58609 2464 1365
SA Sunnybrook 62438 35860 1165 537
Corpus Christi Abundant Life 97850 625 1092 433
Corpus Christi WINGS 87117 11393 1290 200
Lockhart Lighthouse Christian 95812 2457 1548 183
TAIAO D1          
TEAM QUARTERS SEMIS FINAL CHAMPION
Tyler HEAT 9493 28388 28029 34090
SA FEAST Homeschool 23317 29535 20494 26654
Capital City Christian Home School 34148 35468 15424 14960
Temple Centex Homeschool 39095 38257 12965 9683
Fort Worth THESA 65852 22050 7102 4996
Crosby Victory and Praise 60905 27484 7228 4383
Bryan Aggieland Home School (BCAL) 76683 12947 6135 4235
Plano CHANT 90507 5871 2623 999
TAIAO D2          
TEAM QUARTERS SEMIS FINAL CHAMPION
Austin NYOS 0 18228 29436 52336
Bastrop Tribe Consolidated 0 29389 40156 30455
Waco Parkview 19490 54627 17568 8315
San Marcos Homeschool 21741 62559 8584 7116
Weatherford Home School 78259 19213 1626 902
Victoria Home School 80510 15984 2630 876

Obviously for TCAF, I am moving straight into this week since the first round was played last weekend.

Another thing to notice is that teams like Austin NYOS do not lose in the first round. Why? They got a bye.

The biggest shocker at first glance – the fact that Bryan Allen Academy is such a huge favorite. I expected it to be high, but 93.6% to win it all is a little obscene.

So I hope everyone enjoys this… and remember, no wagering.

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