All the data you need to predict World Cup games is at the World Bank

Forget massive mixed models, evaluating world-wide player and team data. Forget checking historical World Cup data. The only data you need to predict World Cup winners comes from a single source — The World Bank.

Yep, that’s right. Let’s Keep It Simple, Stupid and take GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth since the last World Cup in 2010. Honestly, they do not even have all of that, so we will take the growth in 2010, 2011 and 2012.

So far using these three growth figures is a perfect 5-0 through the early Saturday game.

The Data:

Change in GDP for first five World Cup countries

Change in GDP for first five World Cup games

Scores:
Brazil 3 Croatia 1 (12.35 v -3.95)
Mexico 1 Camaroon (13.57 v 12.48)
Netherlands 5 Spain 1 (1.99 v -2)
Chile 3 Australia 1 (19.1 v 7.16)
Columbia 3 Greece 0 (15.73 v -16.95)
So there you go. Five-for-Five.

So what’s the outlook for the US versus Ghana?

Ghana’s GDP % increase for the last 3 recording periods: 8, 15, 7.9 for a total incredible increase of 34%

US’s GDP % increase: 2.5, 1.8, 2.8 for a total of 7.27%

uh-oh.